News Science Quarterly (NS)

News Science Quarterly (NS)

Policymaking Preferable Content for Iran Cyberspace: Futures Studies using Backcasting

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Mohammad Mahdi Mowlaei
Assistant Professor, Department of Journalism, Faculty of Communication Sciences, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. Email: mmmowlaei@atu.ac.ir
10.22034/lrsi.2024.479747.1256
Abstract
Objective: Content in Iran's cyber space is one of the most challenging policy issues in this area, and different and sometimes contradictory approaches have been proposed regarding the way to deal with this phenomenon. In a situation where the speed of cyberspace developments is so high that there is no consensus on a single issue yet, new issues arrive one after the other, futures studies for the internet content policy through knowing the paths ahead and making proactive decisions to prepare for the future is a policy necessity.
Methods: This article uses delphi, future wheels and backcasting methods for futures studies. First, the desired future of the content in Iranian cyberspace was identified with the participation of 32 experts through the Delphi method. The future wheel method was then used to determine the main axes to reach the desired future to provide the basis for backcasting. Backcasting is preparing the mind for future images as a basis for decisions. In this approach, unlike forecasting, instead of looking from the present to the future, we look from the future to the present time, and with the image of the desired situation, which is fundamentally different from the current situation, the base for transformation is provided.
Results: After determining the desired future, the most important axes that need special attention to realize the desired future were identified: the position of governance among content production and distribution players, the balance of power among content production and distribution players, the circulation of content in cyber space whithout restrictions and capabilities of content monetization. The target time horizon of this research is 2025, and in the framework of backcasting, steps are proposed to realize the desired future.
Conclusions: For each of the four axes, time is broken into four steps. These desirable situations have a staggered relationship that the occurrence of any distant future first requires the occurrence of the nearer future. In general, it can be said that reaching the desired future in the field of cyberspace content in Iran can be achieved to a large extent by using the futures studies approach in policy making.
Keywords
Futures Studies
Foresight
Cyberspace
Iran 2025
Backcasting
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