Objective: This study investigates the key factors influencing the future of the Video-on-Demand (VoD) industry, with a specific focus on the Iranian market. The primary objective is to identify the main drivers and trends shaping the industry's evolution, taking into account technological advancements, economic factors, and strategic decisions made by service providers.
Method: The research adopts a futures studies approach, employing structural analysis through the MICMAC (cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification) technique to examine the interdependencies among various factors affecting the VoD sector. A mixed-methods design was used, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. Initially, 17 key trends were selected from 46 potential trends by the research team. These trends were then evaluated by 14 industry experts, who rated them based on importance and uncertainty. Subsequently, MICMAC software was utilized to analyze direct, indirect, and potential latent effects. An additional 9 experts assessed the interdependencies among the 10 key components identified.
Results: The analysis revealed four critical trends that are set to shape the future of the VoD industry. First, data monetization growth enables platforms to personalize content and improve customer satisfaction through user data, which doubles every two years. Second, increasing competition in content production has intensified the race for exclusive and culturally relevant programming, particularly on platforms such as Filimo and Namava in Iran. Third, rising content production costs have created financial pressures on platforms, requiring a balance between expenses and revenue generation. Fourth, the growth in entertainment power, especially in the Middle East and Asia, is accelerating the shift toward streaming services and reshaping traditional media landscapes.
Conclusion: The future of the VoD industry in Iran depends on the complex interplay of technological advancements, content competition, and economic pressures. Data monetization, increased content rivalry, high production costs, and the rapid growth of digital entertainment are crucial determinants. Local platforms like Filimo and Namava must innovate and strategically navigate these factors to remain competitive against international giants and domestic providers. Policymakers and industry leaders must collaborate to foster an environment that encourages sustainable growth and innovation, enabling local platforms to thrive in the global market. The findings indicate a dynamic landscape requiring careful attention to evolving market dynamics and technological advancement.